Saturday, October 24, 2009

UFC 104 Predictions

Man I am so pumped for this event. Machida is fast becoming one of my favorite fighters as his last few fights have been amazing and he prefers to end fights with knockouts rather than decisions. I am especially excited because the Ultimate Fighter has been really shitty and I haven’t seen any good fights lately so this card should make up for it.

As always I will be watching the fights at Shoeless Joe’s where they have the best lattuce fries and pulled pork sandwiches around. Here are my predications for the main card fights:

Lyoto “the Dragon” Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-3)

Easiest fight to call by far. Machida is an absolute beast and is quickly climbing the rankings as one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world. His last fight against Rashad Evans was unbelievable as he made Evans, an excellent striker, look like a complete amateur and knocked him out cold in the 2nd round. This win over Rua should start off the ‘Era of the Dragon’ quite nicely.

I don’t know why anyone would bet on Rua in this fight. His last 2 wins were against a washed up Mark Coleman and an even more washed up Chuck Lidell who has been getting knocked out by everyone lately…even Dancing with the Stars. I give Shogun credit for actually taking this fight as it was reported other people refused to fight Machida at all. Too bad he will be the sacrificial lamb to the slaughter.

Machida should end Shogun’s night early with his devastating striking. If this thing gets to the 3rd round I consider it a moral victory for Shogun.

Prediction: Machida by KO in the 2nd round.

Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6)

I can’t believe that Cain Velasquez was passed over for a Heavyweight title shot after he so thoroughly mandhandled Cheick Kongo. Instead the title shot went to Shane Carwin who is deserving as well but a little less battle tested than Velasquez is. I personally feel like Velasquez is the best fighter in the UFC who doesn’t have a belt. He is well rounded and is young enough that he is still improving. After he takes care of Rothwell he will look to Lesnar for his title shot.

Sorry Ben Rothwell but you don’t stand a chance. He looks like a fat version of Roy Nelson and is probably worse. He is billed as the IFLs top Heavyweight yet he wasn’t the Heavyweight champion in that organization. His most notable win is over Roy Nelson who is currently on the Ultimate Fighter so that is an issue. I saw the UFC Countdown show about this guy and he had his parents doing all of his talking so that’s another concern. Don’t see his hand being raised at the end of the fight.

I think Cain’s superior strength and cardio will play a key role in his victory. If he can keep the fight where he wants it then he should have no problems winning. I just worry that he might need back surgery after lifting up Rothwell’s rotund frame to slam him to the mat.

Prediction: Velasquez via TKO in the 2nd round.

Gleison Tibau (29-6) vs. Josh “the Dentist” Neer (25-8-1)

If you see a fighter who has a BJJ background and has a loss to Melvin Guillard on their record you need to stop and ask questions. Questions such as ‘did you buy your blackbelt at a flea market? Were you drunk when you fought him or maybe concussed? Seriously Guillard is pure standup and looks lost when the fight goes to the ground so how did Tibau lose to him? Right away I can’t support this man.

Neer on the other hand beat Guillard via submission when he him in a guillotine late in the 3rd round. Neer also did this with a gaping cut on his face that should have ended the fight early in the 1st round. Ever since then I have been impressed by Josh Neer and that is saying something cause I am not easily impressed. WOW a blue car!

Prediction: Neer via Unanimous Decision

Joe “Daddy” Stevenson (35-10) vs. Spencer ”The King” Fisher (24-4)

This fight has massive implications in the Lightweight division as the winner will take one step closer to an eventual loss to BJ Penn. Seriously the whole lightweight division is just fighting for a chance to get tapped out.

I like Joe Daddy a lot ever since his days on the Ultimate Fighter. He is a fun guy to root for as he always tries his best and usually has entertaining fights. The problem with Joe is that he hasn’t evolved as a fighter. He relies on his boxing, which isn’t that great, and his takedowns which aren’t impressive either. If he ever wants to take that next step into the upper echelons he needs to progress in all areas.

Spencer Fisher is a well rounded fighter who also loves to put on exciting fights so either way this thing finishes it should be good. My problem with Fisher is that he gets victories over nobodies at least lately anyways. His last 3 wins were against Jeremy Stephens, Shannon Gugerty (had to double check this was a male), and Caol Uno. Not really the cream of the crop there.

Stevenson hasn’t progressed as a fighter but he is still better than Fisher and will look to build off his victory over Nate Diaz.

Prediction: Stevenson via Unanimous Decision

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida (11-3-0)

Oh baby the Rumble is back in action. Anthony Johnson might be the best athlete in the UFC not named Georges St. Pierre. He has great wrestling and he hits like a mother. As long as he can avoid getting poked in the eye 200 times he should be able to handle Yoshida without much effort.

I personally thought Yoshida was dead after Josh Koscheck laid him out with one of, if not, the dirtiest knockouts in UFC history. Seriously I thought the guy died in the ring. Johnson is a better striker than Koscheck so I can’t wait to see this one. Yoshida better be buying life insurance.

Prediction: Johnson via KO in the 1st round.

Random YouTube Video (Had To)


Draper004 said...

Machida is not exciting to watch. He is a defensive fighter. he does nothing but dance around like and idiot until his opponent finally strikes. I am not denying he is good. He is amazing, he made rashad look like a nobody and will keep the belt for a while. But I have 0 respect for his fighting style.

Anonymous said...

How can you have no respect for his fighting style? Maybe you don't find him entertaining, but his fighting style is near perfect since he cannot be touched.

Wych said...

James, you are wrong about Velasquez. He has some serious holes in his defensive game, getting rocked about 3 times against Kongo. Carwin is definitly more battle tested and has serious wrestling and great stand-up. Velasquez is good and an amazing prospect, but being 50 pounds lighter than Brock, would be smothered in the wrestling game.

Draper004 said...

Just because somebody is good at something doesn't mean that I have to respect the way in which they do it. Machida is great, but I have no respect for defensive fighters.

It's like the New Jersey Devils back when they were winning cups. They played trap hockey. I have no respect for trap hockey, but obviously the Devils were good at it.