Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Jeter > Rose?


There are only 27 players in the history of baseball that have 3000 career hits. Most of the players who have 3000 career hits limped to the mark, far from the being the players that set them up the get to 3000. More than half of the 3000 hit club finished their career with less than 3200 hits.

Only 5 of the 27 made it to 3500 hits. Just 2 of these 5 made it to 3800 hits; Ty Cobb (4189) and Pete Rose (4256).

We will always have a lingering question about Ichiro Suzuki, who has average a ML record 226 hits per season throughout his career, but his ML career started way too late (age 27) to have a chance at catching Cobb or Rose.

When the 2009 Regular Season ended today, Derek Jeter will be 35 years and 100 days old. Going into the playoffs he has 2747 career hits. When Pete Rose was 35 years and 100 days he had 2673 hits. This puts Jeter 75 hits ahead of Pete Rose's pace.

Jeter should reach 3000 hits during the first half of the 2011 season, becoming just the 3rd player to pull it off before their 37th birthday, along with Ty Cobb and Robin Yount. With 210+ hits this season, Jeter is sprinting to 3000.

Derek Jeter has already become the Yankees' all-time hit leader and has the most career hits as a shortstop. So can he catch Pete Rose?

It's very unlikely. Pete Rose played another 10 birthdays after his 35th. It would be very hard to imagine Jeter doing the same. Yankee fans and non-Yankee fans alike would have a hard time picturing the “Captain” in any uniform other than a Yankee one. It would be shocking to everyone if Jeter finished his career with any other team. Therefore he would have to have his decline (a severe one by the time he hits his mid-40s) on a team that doesn't appreciate declines.

Take Bernie Williams for example. He could have hooked on with another team, but would rather retire a Yankee. He wanted to play but the Yankees are trying to win the championship every year so they cut him loose.

Despite his amazing pace, it's extremely unlikely Jeter will pass Rose. When Derek Jeter's career is over, he will probably be somewhere between 3rd and 6th on the All-Time hit list. Right now 3, 4, and 5 are Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, and Tris Speaker, respectively. Not bad company to be in.


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