Friday, July 11, 2008

Harden or Sabathia?


On Monday the Milwaukee Brewers traded for CC Sabathia. Not to be outdone on Tuesday the Chicago Cubs traded for Rich Harden. Both teams received dominant pitchers who will definitely help improve their respective rotations and should give both enough firepower to get into the playoffs but who got the better deal?


Deal 1 – CC Sabathia to the Brewers

What they Got: In his career CC Sabathia is 107-71 with a 3.82 ERA 1.26 WHIP and a Cy Young award to boot. He has over 1200 strikeouts and is a fireballer who has started at least 28 games a season throughout his 8 year career. He started 2008 slow, 0-3 13.50 ERA, but since then Sabathia has posted a 2.16 ERA with 109 strikeouts against just 20 walks and eight home runs in his last 14 outings, 10 of which were quality starts.

With the addition of Sabathia the Brewers now have a formidable 1-2 punch with Ben Sheets (10-2) and CC. The Brewers who missed the playoffs last year by 2 games are trying to make sure that doesn’t happen again. The only issue with Sabathia is if his arm can hold up. After years of keeping the annual odometer on his young arm below 200 innings pitched, the Indians finally let go of the reins last year and let the big guy throw 241 innings in the regular season followed by 15 1/3 more in the postseason. Those 256 1/3 innings were a third more than he had thrown the previous season and the most likely reason for Sabathia's rough start in 2008.

Another issue will be resigning Sabathia at the end of the season as he is set to become a restricted free agent and plans on testing the market. The Brewers don’t have big budget and Sabathia is reportedly looking for “Johan Santana Money.” However if another team sign Sabathia in the off season the Brewers get two draft picks in compensation if he signs elsewhere.

What they Gave Up: In order to land Sabathia the Brewers had to part ways with top prospect Matt LaPorta who was their 1st round pick in the 2007 MLB draft. LaPorta is flourishing in Double-A ball right now as he is flirting with .300 has 20 HR and 66 RBI in 86 games so far for the Akron Aeros. LaPorta also possesses an amazingly strong arm and even spent some time in the majors because of this fact.

Letting LaPorta go isn’t that big of a concern to the Brewers who are well stocked with outfielders. Corey Hart is finally living up to his potential in right field and the Brewers have another prospect a 22-year-old named Mat Gamel (.381/.443/.637 at Double-A this year) who looks poised to make the next step to the majors.

Deal 2 – Rich Harden to the Cubs

What they Got: Rich Harden is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in baseball…when healthy. The Canadian phenom has only pitched in 26 games over the past 3 seasons. However when he is healthy he is absolutely nasty on the mound amassing a record of 36-19 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with over 500 Ks. So far this season Harden has been outstanding going 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA which is why the Cubs were so determined to sign him.

With the addition of Harden the Cubs now have a phenomenal rotation going forward that boasts Carlos Zambrano, Harden, and Ryan Dempster. If those three can stay healthy the Cubs should have no problem winning the division and possibly breaking the 100 year streak of not winning the World Series.

The biggest question with Harden is always his health. While he has looked great this season it was reported that a MLB scout noticed Harden's velocity dipping from 93-97 to 89-91 his last two outings, raising concern about whether he's unsound again. Also there is the fact that GM of the Oakland A’s Billy Beane made the deal. Beane is notorious for always knowing something everyone else doesn’t. Plus he traded Harden for very little raising concerns that Beane simply wanted to get rid of Harden.

What they Gave Up: Right-handed pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton, infielder Eric Patterson and catcher Josh Donaldson. So basically, not much.
Gallagher, 22, is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA (29 ER/58.2 IP) in 12 appearances with the Cubs this season.


Murton, 26, has split the 2008 season between the Cubs and Triple-A, batting .250 with six RBI in 19 games for Chicago this season. He has spent all or part of the last four seasons in the majors, hitting .294 with 28 home runs and 104 RBI in 308 big league games.

Patterson, 25, has also split the season between the Cubs and Triple-A and hit .237 during his three stints in the big leagues this season.

Donaldson, 22, batted .217 (51-for-235) with six home runs and 23 RBI in 63 games for Single-A Peoria this season.

It seems as thought the Cubs stole Harden but looking at Billy Beane’s track record this deal seems awfully unusual.

Who Won?

Close call but the decision goes to the Brewers. CC Sabathia is a lights out pitcher who can give you 200+ innings and goes deep into games. The Brewers added a second ace to their rotation and gave up a player who is good but plays a position they are well stocked at. However he will more than likely leave after this season so giving up LaPorta may sting in upcoming seasons.

The Cubs get Harden is injury prone but if he manages to stay healthy will be an absolute steal for what they gave up for him. Also the Cubs got Chad Gaudin to sure up their bullpen and they have got the bankroll to sign Harden after the season is over if need be. It was a response move to the brewers snagging Sabathia and also shows the pressure the team is under to do well in the post season as the 100 curse is starting to become more of a story as the season goes on.


However it all comes back to Billy Beane. Beane would never just let a top pitcher go for nothing as he always squeezes at least a few prospects out of people. To me this is the biggest warning sign of all that something is wrong with Harden. Only time will tell but for now it looks like the Brewers got the better deal.

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