Friday, December 11, 2009

UFC 107 Predictions

This card features some of my least favorite fighters in the UFC as BJ Penn, Diego Sanchez, Frank Mir and Clay Guida are all fighting on the main card on Saturday night. Despite that I am still going to tune in but will be forced to cheer for BJ Penn as my hatred for Diego overwhelms my hatred for Penn.

If Diego Sanchez gets knocked out or submitted in the main event I will go home a very happy man where I will replay the fight over and over again in my head until I fall into a deep and peaceful sleep. Seriously I loathe him.

Here are my predictions for the fights on the main card:

BJ “The Prodigy” Penn (14-5-1) vs. Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez (23-2-0)

This is going to be the toughest test of BJ Penn’s lightweight career as Diego Sanchez is no joke. He is fast, agile, well rounded and extremely strong for 155 as evidenced by the fact he once fought at 185.

If Penn wants to win this fight he needs to take Diego down. Penn’s biggest advantage is his ground game so if he wants to win, and I sure he does, he will need to take the fight to the ground and submit Diego. I see no other way in which Penn’s hand is raised other than a submission victory. Diego has the cardio to go 5 rounds and the power to put Penn to sleep with one punch. Diego’s ground game is strong but his jujitsu just isn’t on the same level as Penn’s, then again no one that fights at 155lbs is on the same level as Penn when it comes to BJJ.

I am really worried for this fight because Diego might actually win and become a UFC champion which would be 100% ruin my night. Nothing ruins a good night like a douchebag winning a UFC title. Just ask anyone who watched Matt Serra beat GSP a few years back. I just shuddered thinking about it.

My hatred for Diego knows no bounds as his bullshit spiritual attitude and ugly face earned my ire from day 1. Add to the fact that he chants “YES!” while pumping his fist repeatedly for his ENTIRE entrance walk to the octagon and you have yourself one douchey Mexican.

Now that the chirps and hatred are out of the way I can get to talking about Diego’s actual skills and abilities. Without a doubt he is an elite fighter. His only UFC losses are to Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck who are both top contenders in the welterweight division and are considered top tier fighters. Diego has dropped weight classes twice now and has looked better and better each time. At 155lbs he is an animal and has steamrolled opponents. He has all the talent and skills necessary to beat BJ Penn and start what could unfortunately be a long title reign.

I do not see this fight ending early although there is talk that Penn and Sanchez have dared one another to meet in the middle of the cage. Whether this happens or not remains to be seen. I see Penn trying to take Diego down while Diego attempts to establish his striking attack using counterpunches while making sure to utilize his superior size. Because I hate Diego so much I cannot in my mind picture him winning so I have to give the edge to Penn.

Prediction: Penn via Submission

Frank Mir (12-4-0) vs. Cheick Kongo (24-5-1)

Remember when Frank Mir talked trash before his Brock Lesnar fight? Well Frank Mir doesn’t. Actually after his last fight Frank probably couldn’t remember where he parked that night. This is because last time we saw Frank Mir fight his face was getting punched into his skull by the 4XL hands of Mr. Lesnar.

Kongo fared no better in his last fight against Cain Velazquez as he got tossed around the octagon like Carlo when Sonny found out he hit Connie. Both these guys are in need of a win if they want to climb back up the ladder and earn a title shot.

Mir is one of the most skilled ground fighters in the heavyweight division and is going to look to get this fight to the ground quickly. After he beat Big Nog a few months back he got it into his head that he could box. He tried that out against Lesnar and quickly discovered his boxing game was viciously over-hyped. Knowing Mir he will get back to his jujitsu ways and go for submissions.

Kongo is the polar opposite of Mir. He relies on his size, power and striking to win fights and has no ground game whatsoever. If he wants to win he is going to need to avoid takedowns and try and stay on his feet. While Kongo is probably as strong as Lesnar he doesn’t use his strength the same way and will be unable to control Mir which will make things difficult for him.

I had very little interest in this fight until I heard Kongo showed his back to Mir at the weigh-ins in some sort of psychological ploy. I love the drama as I have been advocating that the UFC become more like the WWE and this sort of stuff helps. Now I hope some serious trash talking goes down and the fight gets intense.

As much as I hate Frank Mir I don’t see him losing this fight. It is a classic match up of striker vs jujitsu but in this case Frank’s jujitsu is far more advanced than Kongo’s striking. Does Kongo have a chance? He has the same chance of winning as Jwoww has of not getting an STD this season on Jersey Shore (not a spelling mistake the girl actually spells her name with 2 w’s at the end).

Prediction: Mir via Submission

Jon Fitch (23-3-0, 1 NC) vs. Mike Pierce (9-2-0)

Let’s see Jon Fitch has only 1 loss in the UFC and that was to GSP. Mike Pierce on the other hand boasts wins over guys like Brock Larson and Justin Haskins.

Jon Fitch is an amazing fighter who dominates opponents with his outstanding wrestling. He also has a great chin and enough cardio to go 5 rounds. Fitch was supposed to fight Ricardo Almeida but Almeida had to pull out due to injury. So now Fitch is fighting a jobber and should pad the stat sheet with an easy win.

On his page it lists Mike Pierce’s strengths as “takedowns and ground and pound.” Considering those strengths play right into the strengths of Fitch I am going to say that Pierce is boned.

This fight should end quickly and with Pierce in a lot of pain.

Prediction: Fitch via TKO

Kenny “KenFlo” Florian (13-4-0) vs. Clay “the Carpenter” Guida (25-7-0)

Poor Kenny Florian. All he does is win enough fights to get a title shot and then lose. He has 3 losses in his UFC career and all were title shots. Twice for the lightweight title and once for the Ultimate Fighter season 1 title. Based on that stat alone you gotta like Florian in this fight.

Ahh Clay Guida. He puts on exciting fights but is somebody I just don’t like. His hair is stupid and his brother is nuff fat. His skills are decent but not on the same level as Florian’s.

Kenny is a smart fighter and doesn’t get sucked into other people’s fighting style. He does his own thing at his own pace and that will be the difference in this fight. Kenny is better than Gudia at every aspect of MMA and should have no problems beating him and starting his way back up the rankings.

How does Guida win this fight? He doesn’t have the power to finish Florian and he doesn’t have the wrestling or jujitsu either. Guida likes to go to the judges score cards while Florian likes to in his own words, “finish fights” by making people bleed with his elbows. Pretty easy fight to pick here.

Prediction: Florian via TKO

Paul “the Headhunter” Buentello (25-10-0) vs. Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve (22-3-0)

How this fight made the main card I will never know. I think the UFC is trying to get people to like Stefan Struve for some reason. Either that or he has some incriminating photos of Joe Silva.

Why isn’t the Alan Belcher-Wilson Gouveia fight on the main card? Certainly that fight would be more interesting than these 2 dusters going at it.

Struve is on a 2 fight win streak and even has a win over spinning backfist specialist and personal favorite of mine Denis Stjonic. He is 6’11 and uses his considerable reach advantage to, well his advantage. The only way I will start to like Struve is if he uses those freak legs to kick some people’s heads off.

Buentello has never beaten anyone of note (although he did get knocked out in 14 seconds when he fought Andrei Arlovski) and yet made the main card. I laughed pretty hard when I read his strengths on as one of them was “improved grappler.” What a backhanded compliment.

This will be the fight where I order and eat my food so I don’t miss anything important in the later fights. If the fight ends quickly then I will be pumped but if it drags on I will be pissed. Nothing kills the momentum of a UFC night quite like 2 jobbers taking 15 minutes to finish their fight.

Prediction: Struve via Decapitation via Head kick

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1 comment:

braden said...

If struve can beat stoijnic he can handle buentello.