TUF 10 Finale Predictions

Matt “The Hammer” Hamill (7-2) vs. Jon “Bones” Jones (9-0)

Hamill has tremendous wrestling, but relies on his heavy handed striking to finish his fights, only winning by decision once with no submission victories under his belt. Time and time again, Hamill surprises me with his ability to pull out victories and do so in powerful fashion. His most surprising victory came when Hamill won “Knockout of the Night” for his head kick KO of “Filipino Wrecking Machine” Mark Munoz (3-1) at UFC 96 in Columbus March 7.

Jones is ten years younger than Hamill, but boasts the same number of professional fights even though he wasthe youngest signed UFC fighter at the time of his contract signing. Jones is a JUCO wrestling champ and, like Hamill, has heavy hands, with five of his nine victories coming by way of KO or TKO due to strikes. Jones also has two submission victories under his belt, both via guillotine choke. Jones is a fast, aggressive youngster who looks to continue his quick-rising fame by finishing Hamill, perhaps with one of his trademark spinning back elbows.

Although I am a huge Hamill fan, he doesn’t have the tools to stop what Jones brings to the table. Jones is fast and powerful and the wrestling backgrounds will cancel each other out, leaving a stand up war. Hamill is tough, and has a proven chin, but Jones is as fast as any opponent Hamill has ever seen and will land more strikes than Hamill is used to taking. Jones touts submission victories, and has a better ground game, so look for Jones to immediately move to dominate if the fight goes to the ground. You better believe Hamill has done his homework on Jones’s submission game, so there is a possibility that we won’t see a single shot throughout the duration of the fight. Don’t forget that this is the first fight for Hamill after the knee surgery, so expect there to not only be rust in the pipes, but also a Jones attack on said Knee via leg kicks.

Prediction: Jones via TKO

Roy “Big Country” Nelson (14-4) vs. Brendan Schaub (4-0)

You know what has me on the fence for this one, the fact that Schaub's been taken down and mounted in both of his fights on this season of TUF. Roy will obviously look to take the fight to the ground and finish Schaub the way he finished Kimbo and McSweeney with the crucifix belly smother.

Schaub looked alright in the house finding ways to win even though he was often in awful positions. The thing is against Nelson he won’t be able to get out as easily as moving Roy’s gut off your face is no small task. I like the fact that Scaub trains with Greg Jackson as Jackson’s fighters are usually very well prepared and come in and stick to their game plan.

I personally feel like Nelson will not make it into the UFC if he loses as Dana White has shown an obvious distaste for him so that should give Nelson added incentive to make this fight memorable. I see no way in which Schaub wins this fight as although he is a decent striker he is not on par with the guys Nelson has faced in the past.

Prediction: Nelson via Submission

Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson (3-1) vs. Houston “The Assassin” Alexander (8-4-1)

Remember when Dana White said the only way Kimbo would fight in the UFC was if he won The Ultimate Fighter? Well Kimbo didn’t win a single fight and yet here he is with a chance to fight in the UFC. I like Kimbo and I really liked the way he acted on the show as he didn’t act as if he was better than anyone or start to believe his own hype. Having said that he is struggling with that knee injury and has never beaten anyone of note.

Houston has been up and down, looking fantastic at times (like when he knocked out Keith Jardine) then questionable (like when he got KO’d by James Irvin) in his last few fights. Still, I think he will be more than Kimbo can handle in the cage as he obviously hits a little harder than Seth Petruzelli who proved too much for Kimbo to handle back in October of last year. I don’t see this fight lasting long at all and if it makes it out of the 1^st round I will be very surprised.

Both men hit hard so this could basically come down to a coin flip.

Prediction: Alexander via KO

Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (10-1) vs. Matt Veach (11-0)

Veach has an impressive record but I believe Edgar will be his first real test as a fighter. Veach is a bit of an unknown to me so I don’t know much about him. Having looked at his record I like the fact that he has only gone to a decision once which means to like to end fights so hopefully this fight will be entertaining

I have seen Edgar fight a number of times and he always puts on a good show and comes in prepared with a solid game plan. He can strike and has a great wrestling base which he uses to dictate the pace of the fight. I have seen enough decisions out of Edgar though and would like to see him finish this fight but that probably won’t happen giving Edgar’s lack of power and fondness of wrestling

Prediction: Edgar via Decision

Marcus “The Darkness” Jones (4-1) vs. Matt Mitrione (0-0)

Marcus has shown that he as a glass jaw and can be knocked out easily. He has also shown that his ground game is sick and he can take down fighters at will. If he can get Mitrione to the ground this one should end pretty quickly.

Mitrione has shown he has power which he will need to stop Marcus. He also showed versus McSweeney that he likes to leave his neck sticking out so he can get choked. In that fight he tapped way too fast and dind’t display any heart or toughness what so ever.

I watched this whole season and HATED Mitrione and loved Marcus so I am picking solely based off that. I hope Marcus breaks his are and takes it home with him.

Prediction: Jones via Submission

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