Top 25 Ratings and "Upsets"

Remind me never to bet on college football again. It is so frustrating to see all these ranked teams get beat every week and have analysts say 'I don't know what happened.' Last week USC lost to Washington and ruined my day and this week almost every team I bet on blew it.

What I have learned from this experience is that early on in the college football season rankings means nothing. They are based more on opinion than statistics and upsets are common. Here are the ranked teams that were "upset" this week:

#6 California lost to Oregon 42-3
#4 Mississippi lost to South Carolina 16-10
#18 Florida St. lost to Southern Florida 17-7
#22 North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech 24-7
#9 Miami lost to Virginia Tech 31-7
#5 Penn St. lost to Iowa 21-10
#24 Washington lost to Stanford 34-14

Those are 7 of the top 25 teams in the country that were beaten by unranked opponents (except Miami who lost to Virgina Tech ranked #11). What does this tell us? Some would argue it tells us that a lot of superior teams lost to inferior teams but this is not the case. It tells us that rankings are useless early in the season.

To prove this point look no further than Washington. Going into this week they were 2-1 and coming off of a win over USC. This means that their 1 win over USC put them in the top 25. Now in that game USC played their back up quarterback and played one of the worst offensive games of the past decade yet in the eyes of the rankings a win is a win. So when 2-1 Washington played 2-1 Stanford the teams were actually closer to even than the rankings would indicate yet Washington was the heavy favorite.

How is a 2-1 team beating a 2-1 team an upset? Both teams have the same record and have played almost the same level of competition. The only thing that separates the two is that little 24 that is beside Washington on the scoreboard which was put there based on someones opinion and not stats.

Iowa vs #5 Penn St. is another great example as both teams were undefeated going into Saturday at 3-0. One would assume Penn State would win due to their superior ranking however Iowa is a strong team and beat Penn State last year to end their National Championship title hopes. Iowa ended up winning and the game is called an upset.

Each team that won today is a solid team. There actually wasn't a real "upset" today as all the losing teams lost to solid competition. It would be calling a Houston Texans victory over the New England Patriots an upset. One team is thought to be superior but really they are pretty even if you look at it.

Early in the season the rankings are compiled based on the team record of the previous season, the recruitment class and also number of players retained. Basically what this means is people choose the best teams based on potential and no on performance. Thus this system favors teams with a good reputation and past success.

The system also keeps some teams in the top 25 that have no business being there. Some teams are undefeated and yet are not in the top 25 while other teams who have lost games continue to hold a ranking. For example Auburn is 4-0 and unranked while Mississippi is 2-1 and ranked #4.

In the first few weeks you have to sit back and watch the games and learn about the teams and see who are the contenders and who are the pretenders. This is a lesson I wished I had learned a few weeks ago because then my wallet wouldn't be so empty.

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