The Problem With #1

What do John Tavares and Stephen Strasburg have in common?  Both are expected to be taken #1 overall in the upcoming draft of their respective sports.  Both are expected to make millions of dollars in signing bonuses and both are expected to be superstars for the teams that select them. Finally what they both have in common is that they both will be drafted by the 2 crappiest teams in their sport.

Tavares is a consensus 1st overall pick and therefore will be drafted by the lowly New York Islanders.  Now he may find joy in the fact that he is picked first overall but that joy will quickly turn to sadness once he realises he will be wearing an Islanders jersey every night and as a rookie will no doubt be far and away the best player on the team.

His talents will go to waste on a team that has no goal scoring threats, no defense, and a goalie who can't stay healthy and has no financial incentive to try after signing a 15 year deal.  Tavares will be stuck with the Islanders and will have to spend his first few seasons on a dump team that's only hope of getting better rests squarely on their ability to come last every season and acquire more top 5 draftpicks.

Strasburg is no different as it has already been confirmed that the Washington Nationals, who own the first overall pick in the 2009 draft, will select him and sign him no matter what the cost. Much like Tavares his talent will be wasted on a team with no legitimate chance of becoming a contender.  The Nationals have some young players but they lack any talent at starting pitcher and their bullpen is a sophie's choice of losers.

While both these players could potentially hold out and refuse to sign with the team that drafts them in the long run that will only hurt their careers as they will miss valuable playing time and will cost them millions of dollars.

To see the true negative effects of going #1 look no further than Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford who only a few weeks ago went first overall to the Detroit Lions.  The Lions are by far the worst team in the NFL and set a new record by going 0-16 last season.  Stafford will be forced to sit on the bench and learn from Daunte Culpepper who has no business teaching anyone anything as he himself can barely hold down a job.

Stafford will also come to a team where losing is natural and is part of the culture.  Despite the best efforts of the coaches and management the team is going to lose multiple games and will win 3 games if they are lucky.  So while Stafford is getting paid roughly $13 million a season to do nothing, in the long run getting picked by the Lions isn't the best possible option.

The same can be said for Strasburg and Tavares as neither the Nationals or the Islanders have any players on their team that can be a role model to these players or give them the wisdom of their years of experience.  I don't see any benefit in Julian Tavarez pulling Strasburg aside and telling him his secret to being a career middle reliever with an ERA around 4.5.  Nor do I see Doug Weight giving Tavares any advice that would be worth writing down other than how to hold onto a roster spot despite being a corpse.

The sad fact is that both of these players have the potential to be superstars but their talent and potential is going to go to waste on teams that have 0 chance of challenging for a championship or even a .500 record for that matter.  They will get drafted, put on the jersey and hat, and smile only to have that smile wiped away once they find out that their first few years as a professional athlete will be a fruitless endeavour in which their only hope is to attain individual success.

Going #1 clearly has its advantages but those advantages are 99% financial.  So while Stafford may earn an extra $3 million a season players like Jeremy Maclin and Eugene Monroe are going to benefit more from going to stronger teams with better personel in place.

Note: I chose not to include the NBA in this dicussion as since the teams are so small by drafting a great player, like Blake Griffin, and signing a big free agent any team can be good.  For instance if the Sacramento Kings, who have the 1st overall pick, take Griffin and then sign a big free agent or 2 then they could potentially challenge for a playoff spot.

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